NCCI: Softening Wage Trend, Slower Employment Growth Suppressing Payroll Exposure

Growth in average hourly earnings continued to slow last month, the National Council on Compensation Insurance reported, weakening the natural source of premium growth. Strong wage and employment growth can boost premiums without the need for rate increases, while slowing wage and employment growth limits exposure-driven premium growth and can increase pressure on rates to compensate. Average hourly earnings in July were up 3.2% compared to July 2025. The growth rate is below the one-year average of 3.6%, the three-year average of 3.9% and the five-year average of 4.4%. "This softening...